The Big 3 Sports

Coach of the Year

2005-03-29T17:47:00.000-08:00

This year, there is once again numerous candidates for Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers (Boston), Jeff Van Gundy (Houston), Mike Fratello (Memphis), Eddie Jordon (Washington), George Karl (Denver), Scott Skiles (Chicago), Rick Carlisle (Indiana), and Nate McMillan (Seattle).

Honorable Mentions:

Doc Rivers has managed 3 huge egos in Payton, Davis, and Pierce while still managing to win games. We have to exclude Rivers simply because Boston plays in such a horrendous division.

Jeff Van Gundy deserves mention simply because he forced management to get the missing veteran pieces he needed and for relaxing his slow down pace. We have to exclude Van Gundy because he still hasn’t figured out how to make McGrady play defense and they lost to San Antonio without Tim Duncan.

When Memphis came stumbling out of the blocks people were ready to throw in the towel. Fratello took over and made the Grizzlies compete without everyone healthy. The only reason he gets excluded is because now that everyone is healthy, the Grizzlies are still mediocre.

Top 5:

5) George Karl has made the Denver Nuggets a playoff team when everyone had counted them out. He only gets bumped to number 5 because he took over mid-season.

4) Eddie Jordon took what had been a woeful Wizards team for years and is on the verge of getting to the playoffs as the 4^th seed in the East. People may claim it’s only because of the acquisition of Antawn Jamison, but the Wizards kept winning when Hughes and the n Jamison went down with injuries.

3) They are the Baby Bulls no longer. Skiles has forced his team to play great defense and the wins have come. Despite starting 0-9, the Bulls look like a great team. In any other he would have won the award hands down.

2) The Indiana Pacers have been decimated my suspensions and injuries. Artest is gone for the season, Jackson and O’neal missed games b/c of the brawl, and O’neal and Tinsley are done for the season, but the Pacers keep winning. The coaching job he’s done has been spectacular.

1) The Sonics are on pace to win a stunning 57 games despite losing their first game in a blowout. He’s dealt with Fortson’s attitude problem and is currently 7-1 without Radmanovic. I, among many others, thought Seattle would come back down to Earth, but they are the real deal.

Firing Coaches Midseason has got to Stop

2005-03-27T16:37:00.000-08:00

If you wanted to coach in the NBA you might want to rethink that idea. It now seems that coaches get fired for no good reason or to “inspire” the team. The following coaches have been fired or “quit” this season: Paul Silas (Cleveland Cavaliers), Johnny Davis (Orlando Magic), Maurice Cheeks (Portland Trailblazers), Flip Saunders (Minnesota T-Wolves), Jeff Bzdelik (Denver Nuggets), Lenny Wilkens (New York Knicks), and Hubie Brown (Memphis Grizzlies). This doesn’t even include Rudy Tomjanovich and Don Nelson who both actually resigned for health reasons or their team was hopeless. If you were keeping count that was 7 coaches fired and 2 resignations.

Paul Silas was fired when his team held a 34-30 record with the fifth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Ownership claimed he was fired because the team was slumping, but everyone knows he was sacked because of disagreements with ownership. They simply felt they could use this as an excuse to fire him and might keep Lebron James in Cleveland.

Johnny Davis was fired because the Magic are under performing and are not a current playoff team if the season ended today. This firing solves nothing because it won’t make Hedo Turkoglu heal faster and Steve Francis isn’t a franchise player. It was management’s decision to trade away superstar Tracy McGrady and Davis shouldn’t have been fired for their mistake.

The Maurice Cheeks firing is the second worst in the NBA this season. The Trailblazers have always been a temperamental team and only trading away players can change that. Cheeks did an excellent job attempting to coach volatile players and should have kept his job until at least the season was over. The only criticism of Cheeks could be his reluctance to play the younger players. I truly hope Cheeks gets another shot at being a head coach in the NBA.

The firing of Flip Saunders is totally unwarranted and the Minnesota management should be ashamed of themselves. Yes, the team was underperforming, but getting an aging Sam Cassel and Latrell Spreewell wasn’t the brightest move. Even with the great Kevin McHale, the T-wolves are still floundering, proving the coach wasn’t the problem.

Last year the Denver Nuggets surprised everyone by making the eight seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Hopes were high at the beginning of the year, but the Nuggets stumbled out of the gates. Bzdelik’s firing is one of two I agreed with, he deserved to get sacked. Since taking over, George Karl has the Nuggets back to the eighth seed in the West and should make the playoffs.

The other firing I agreed with was the firing of Hubie Brown, who’s Memphis Grizzlies were underachieving. Mike Fratello took over and now the Grizzlies are rolling, currently holding the sixth spot in the West. The Memphis management could have chosen to be more patient, but their coaching move seems to have paid dividends.

When the New York Knicks held a news conference stating that Coach Lenny Wilkens had resigned, almost everybody laughed at this notion. Any person with half a brain knew Wilkens was probably given the choice of resigning or being fired. Being the classy guy he is, Wilkens resigned as an attempt to make the Knicks management save face. I really don’t care who the Knicks coach was this year, even guys like Phil Jackson and Dean Smith couldn’t get the Knicks to win.

Out of seven firings, two were legitimate and only those two teams improved. What is the point of firing a coach midseason if the team won’t improve? Mostly, a mid-season firing will make the team play worse because they need to adjust to a different coaching style.

In Defense of Bonds

2005-03-25T19:06:00.000-08:00

Barry Bonds recently said he was “tired” and might miss the entire 2005 season and perhaps he might never play again. While other teams’ pitchers celebrate the fact they may never have to face Bonds again, fans are also celebrating his demise. People will always remember Bonds for his “tainted” homerun record and his involvement with steroids. Some people seem to have forgotten what Barry Bonds was like prior to turning into a giant from steroid use. He was the only player in baseball history to have 500 homeruns and 500 stolen bases. Even if one wanted to take away his last 200 homeruns, there is no doubt he would have been a Hall-of-Famer. The only reason to deny him entry would be because of his tainted homerun record, and that’s not enough. The media has driven Bonds name through the mud because he wasn’t “media friendly”. Since when has it become ok to ruin a player’s name just because he doesn’t like you? If I were on the voting committee for the Hall of Fame, I wouldn’t hesitate to vote him in.

New York Mets

2005-03-24T18:34:00.000-08:00

New York Mets

Outfield:

Cliff Floyd, Carlos Beltran, and Mike Cameron

In 120 games last year Floyd hit .260 with 18 hrs and 63 rbis, but the numbers could have been better considering he was batting around Richard Hidalgo and Mike Piazza. If he can manage to stay healthy, Floyd could hit 25 hrs and drive in 85 runs batting behind Beltran and Piazza. A concern with Floyd is he managed to hit only .239 against left handed pitchers.

Carlos Beltran is coming off a career year in 2004 hitting 38 homeruns, driving in 104 runs and stealing 42 bases. A solid hitter versus both lefty and righty pitchers, the Mets seemed to have finally nabbed a superstar in his prime. Beltran could easily be a 40/40 guy with another 100 rbis thrown into the mix.

Mike Cameron rounds out a solid outfield who like his counterparts can put up big power numbers. In 2004, Cameron hit a career high 30 homeruns and stole 22 bases. While I don’t expect him to hit another 30 homers this year, you could see him hit 25 and steal 25 bases if he manages to raise his batting average.

Infield:

David Wright, Mike Piazza, Doug Mientkiewicz, Kaz Matsui, and Jose Reyes

In the last two months of the season when he was called up from the minor leagues, David Wright looked very good. In 69 games he hit 14 homeruns and drove in 40 while maintaining a .293 batting average, and hit above .300 versus left handed pitchers. Wright has the making of a great hitter and a sleeper in a fantasy baseball league.

Mike Piazza is on the tail end of a great career. His .266 bating average and 20 homeruns were his lowest of his career when he’s played over 100 games in a season. He did however show some good patience at the plate recording an OBP 100 points higher than his batting average. Since there is no DH in the NL and Piazza didn’t play well at first base, he may only appear in 110—115 games this year. His time as a dominant power hitter is drawing to a close.

Doug Mientkiewicz is another reason why Piazza is unlikely to switch to first base. Mientkiewicz is a gold glove first baseman which makes his slightly below average hitting bearable. Any offense that Mientkiewicz generates is just a bonus. If the Mets don’t like his offensive production, they can always stick Andres Galarraga to play first.

It’s hard to see how Kaz Matsui wasn’t a bust during his first year in the Majors. He wasn’t very productive batting leadoff and his fielding at shortstop was downright awful. The Mets are hoping he will perform better at second base and will adjust to major league pitching after playing for years in Japan.

Jose Reyes was hyped up greatly, and projected to be a great player. All this came crashing to Earth when he kept getting injured. If he could manage to stay healthy, he would be a very dangerous leadoff hitter with his speed and ability to make contact.

Pitchers:

Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Kris Benson, Victor Zambrano, and Kaz Ishii

Pedro Martinez was the other major superstar added by the Mets during the off-season. Despite posting a career high 3.90 ERA (which isn’t that awful) Martinez had a solid year in 2004. Without having to face the New York Yankees this year, Pedro should be back to his dominant self. Pedro will give the Mets 15-20 wins, 200+ strikeouts and an ERA under 3.50.

For years, Glavine was part of the second greatest 1-2 pitcher combo in history, the first being RJ and Schilling. When the Mets signed him 2003 they expected much of the same, but have received only 20 wins to date and an ERA around 4.00. While he did pitch better in 2004, 11 wins won’t cut it for the money he makes. Maybe being dropped back to the number 2 starter in the rotation will help his pitching.

How or why anyone expects Kris Benson to be good escapes me. Have any of these people bothered to look at his statistics? Only once has me managed to win 12 games, has a career ERA of 4.28, and recorded only 134 K’s last year. If he manages to win 13 games this year I would be shocked.

Victor Zambrano showed flashes of brilliance when pitching for Tampa Bay and was the reason they traded away a top prospect for him. Then came the boos when like many Met player before him, got injured shortly after being acquired. Zambrano could be a great steal for the Met s or a giant bust.

In a recent move, the Mets traded away backup catcher Jason Phillips for Kaz Ishii. For the Dodgers last year, Ishii had a great first half, but a woeful second half. His first half last year was good enough to impress people and convince them he could really pitch well. If Ishii can finally manage to have a decent second half, he could prove to be invaluable to the Mets.

Bullpen:

Braden Looper saved 29 games last year with an ERA of 2.70. While you might want a lower ERA from your closer, I believe he could save 40+ games for the Mets this year.

The NL West: Part I

2005-03-23T16:59:00.000-08:00

Los Angeles Dodgers

Outfield:

Jayson Werth, Milton Bradley, and J.D. Drew

Bradley played decently in 2004 hitting .267, with 19 hrs and 67 rbis. Most people feel with his combination of line drive hitting and speed would be best utilized at the lead off position, but looks like he’ll bat somewhere in the middle this year. Bradley will put up numbers similar to last year, but there are two concerns. A) He struggled in the last two months of 2004 and B) He has anger issues and could be a clubhouse distraction.

Werth was injured last year, but hit .262 with 16hr and 47 rbis in 89 games. In just his second plate appearance of the season he broke a bone in his arm when he was struck by a pitch. Werth is a young player who’s looked great when healthy. I would expect 25-30 hrs and 80-90 rbis.

Drew played a career high 145 games and it showed in his stats ah he posted a .305 average with 31 hrs and 93 rbis. If he puts up the same numbers in 145 games again the Dodgers should be satisfied with Drew. If by some miracle he stays healthy the whole season, Drew could hit 40 dingers with 110 rbis.

Infield:

Hee-Seop Choi, Jeff Kent, Cesar Izturis, Jose Valentin, Jason Phillips

Choi is a young first baseman that shows promise, but has trouble when pitched inside and driving in runs. Despite hitting 15hrs, he only managed to drive in 45 runs and batted only .251. Choi has struggled thus far in Spring Training and it would seem likely his struggles will continue into the regular season.

Despite getting even older, Kent’s numbers went up from 2003 in 2004. He hit 5 more homeruns and drove in14 more runs. Like Clemens and Randy Johnson, Kent is still playing superbly at an older age. The only negatives on Kent are his speed and he's an average fielder at best.

Iztirus won a gold glove lat year for his spectacular fielding, and any offense he generated was just a nice bonus. His fielding also makes his teammates fielding better leading to a great defense. Oh, did I mention he’ll also steal bases to help ignite the offense? He could easily steal 30 bases this year.

Despite playing in only 125 games, Valentin hit a whopping 30 hrs and driving in 70 runs. The only knock on those numbers are his low .216 batting average. If he stays healthy, he could hit 35-40 hrs and drive in 100 runs.

In a surprise move, the Dodgers traded Kaz Ishii to the Mets for catcher Jason Phillips. Like most catchers, don’t expect Phillips to be running anywhere quickly, but has a solid arm to partly control the running game. He has hit really well during Spring Training and could be a force at the plate.

Starting Pitchers:

Derek Lowe, Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez, Brad Penny, Edwin Jackson

Lowe is a sinkerball pitcher who produces many more grounders than fly balls. In Boston a weak infield hampered his success. With Izturis anchoring the infield with his gold glove, you can expect more success this year from Lowe. I would expect 15 wins from Lowe with an ERA slightly above 4.00.

Weaver has been consistent in his mediocrity and continued it last year going 13-13 with an ERA of 4.01. Despite the 13 wins tying a career high, don’t hold your breath waiting for Weaver to pitch well consistently. If anything, his wins could drop this year instead of going up.

Ignoring his win-loss record, Perez pitched great last year posting an ERA of 3.25 and had an ERA less than 3.00 in three different months last year. Perez should pitch well this year and should hit 15 wins with an ERA around 3.00 and a low WHIP.

Brad Penny posted a career low 3.15 ERA last year, but only had 9 wins to show for it. When the Dodgers acquired him from the Marlins, they expected great things, but he only lasted one outing before his season was ended by a shoulder injury. If he manages to stay healthy in 2005, you could easily see 10-15 wins with an ERA of 3.20.

With the trading of Kaz Ishii, it seems like Edwin Jackson will start the season in the starting rotation. Very unproven, what he does this season could be good, bad or just mediocre.

Bullpen:

Eric Gagne is perhaps one of the greatest closers in the game and is the only pitcher I know of who received a standing ovation after blowing a save. Besides for his 45 saves last year he also won 7 games. Good? No. Great? Yes.

The AL West: Part IIII

2005-03-22T15:09:00.000-08:00

Seattle Mariners

Outfield:

Ichiro, Randy Winn, Jeremy Reed

Ichiro is hands down the greatest leadoff batter in them majors right now. He batted an abnormal .372, and drove in 60 runs while stealing 36 bases last year. People have begged Ichiro to use some power; he seems content to only hit singles all over the diamond. There is no way to predict where the ball is being hit to when he’s at the plate. He should hit .345, drive in 55, and steal 30 bases.

While his batting average went down in 2004, Randy Winn made up for it with career highs in homeruns (14) and rbis (81). Winn is having a strong Spring Training and should translate to a strong regular season. He should have a .280 batting average, 10-15 hrs, 75 rbis and 20 stolen bases.

In his rookie season, Reed only appeared in 18 games, but did bat .397. He is having an average Spring Training and should translate to an average season. I would expect 10 homeruns, 55 rbis and 20 stolen bases.

Infield:

Richie Sexson, Bret Boone, Adrian Beltre, Pokey Reese, Miguel Olivo

Adrian Beltre posted career highs in homeruns (48), rbis (121), and batting average (.334) with LA in 2004. I would highly doubt that Beltre could put up those numbers again. I would say 35 hrs, 110 rbis and a batting average of .310.

Sexson only played 23 games last year but still hit 9 hrs and 23 rbis. I would expect a solid season from the healthy first baseman and to produce numbers similar to 2003. I would predict 30 hrs and 110 rbis despite a not so great Spring Training.

Brett Boone’s numbers took a major dip in 2004 and the reason could be his age and nagging injuries. It is highly doubtful he will produce another such woeful season and his numbers should crawl back up to 25 hrs with 85 rbis.

Pokey Reese will not put up numbers at the plate, but will be amazing in the field. He also possesses great speed and should steal when he does reach base. He could have won a gold glove if he could just hit a little better.

Olivo was brought to Seattle in a trade from the White Sox and performed horribly. Pitches were bouncing by him and he could hit anything. This Spring Training he’s showing why the Mariners traded for him. Despite a woeful batting average of .200, pitches aren’t getting by him. His one passed ball was off an uncalled foul tip according to the Seattle manager.

Starting Pitchers:

Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro, Bobby Madritsch, Gil Meche, Ryan Franklin

In 2003 Moyer was great posting a 20-7 record with an ERA of 3.27, but in 2004 was a dismal 7-13 with an ERA of 5.21. I expect Moyer’s struggles to continue as he’s an old pitcher who doesn’t know when to quit. Expect his ERA to be high even though Seattle plays in a big park.

Pineiro got injured at the end of the 2004 season, but appears healthy in Spring Training despite getting rocked. I would expect 15 wins with an ERA slightly under 4.00 who pitched well in 2002 and 2003.

Madritsch pitched well in 11 stars for Seattle in 2004, his rookie season. His 3 losses are deceiving because the Mariners couldn’t hit last year and his ERA was 3.27. I would expect a 10-15 win season from the late blooming pitcher. The criticism of Madritsch is he has no breaking ball, but should still pitch well.

Gil Meche looked absolutely horrendous in 2004 until he hit his last 10 games where he went 5-2 with an ERA slightly over 4.00. I expect Meche to be the best pitcher on the Seattle staff and should go 15-20 with an ERA of 4.00.

Ryan Franklin posted an eye popping 4-16 record last year with a 4.90 ERA. While some feel he would pitch better as a reliever, he will still be part of the starting rotation. He was very mediocre and I would expect much of the same in 2004.

Relief Pitcher:

Eddie Guardado was having a solid season until he went on the DL with a shoulder injury. In 02-03 he had 40+ save seasons and would expect nothing less than 42 in 2005

I Just want the Game to be Played Fairly

2005-03-21T05:03:00.000-08:00

The issue of steroids in baseball has become a major distraction and black eye for a sport which I and many others enjoy watching. First Jose Canseco published a book saying steroids were the only reason he was an adequate player and accused current players of using steroids. Pudge (Ivan) Rodriguez, a player accused in Conseco’s book of taking steroids, reported to Spring Training a mysterious 20 pounds lighter. One of my favorite players, Todd Helton, has just been accused of taking steroids. Then, to top it all off, Canseco, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Palmeiro, Commissioner Bud Selig, Player’s Association Rep Donald Fehr, and Baseball Executive Vice President Rob Manfred were all called before Congress to testify about steroid use. From the meeting before Congress, the only valid point brought up was why do players only get a 10 day suspension for something that’s illegal in the United States. The BALCO case still hangs around with Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi testifying they used steroids. Alex Rodriguez shows up to Spring Training 15 pounds heavier and steroid rumors went swirling around. You can’t even listen to a sports radio show without steroids coming up about 8 billion times.

I have the perfect solution for the “rampant” steroid use in baseball (around 2%) and it addresses numerous issues. 1) No asterisks allowed in the record books. If Major League Baseball cared if people were using steroids they would have tested for them. You allowed them to play juiced up; their records get to stay unblemished. 2) Mark McGwire should be a Hall-of-Famer for the reasons stated in point 1. 3) You get caught three times using steroids, you get kicked out of baseball and all your stats are voided, past and present. 4) Fine the players when their caught. Don’t let them get away with just losing part of their paycheck when they miss games because of suspensions.

One knows that the all powerful players union would never go along with my plan, but how effective will their 4 strike punishment system really be?

The AL West: Part III

2005-03-20T18:26:00.000-08:00

Texas Rangers

Infield:

Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano, Michael Young, Hank Blalock

In 145 games Teixeira hit 38 homeruns and drove in 112 runs. In his two years, his batting average, hits, hrs, rbis all went up. I would expect his numbers to continue to rise batting .290 with 42 homeruns with 120 rbis.

Soriano, the best second baseman in all of baseball should lead off for the Rangers. Out of the leadoff position he hit 28 hrs and 91 rbis. I would expect more of the same for the same from Soriano with 35 hrs and 100 rbis playing in the tiny Arlington Stadium. One can’t forget his speed and he could steal 25 bases.

Like the above two players, Michael Young is just getting better and better. Last year he hit a career high 22 hrs with 99 rbis while hitting .312. His numbers keep improving and I would expect 20-25 hrs with 100 rbis and 10 stolen bases.

Finally you get to another power hitter in Hank Blalock. Last year he hit 32 hrs and 110 rbis both career highs. I would guess he will do much of the same and hit 30 hrs with 100 rbis. The only thing that would go up is his batting average.

At the moment, Rod Barajas is expected t get the starting nod at catcher. If you look at his numbers his on base percentage is only 27 points higher than his batting average! This would imply he didn’t hit the ball well because he only struck out 63 times. The Rangers hitting coach better drill some patience into Barajas.

Outfield:

Richard Hidalgo, Kevin Mench, and Laynce Nix/Gary Mathews Jr.

Richard Hidalgo is yet another power hitter in the stacked Rangers lineup hitting 25 hrs and 82 rbis last year in Houston and NYM. I wouldn’t expect any of his numbers to really increase, but you can easily count on 20-25 hrs and 80rbis.

Kevin Mench started the 2004 season slow, but poured it on in the last two months of the season. According to scouts his hitting has improved and his numbers should remain pretty steady batting after all the power hitters before him. The only real criticism is his durability because he’s never played more than 125 games in a season.

The third outfield position is up for grabs and Nix is the current frontrunner. Nix was playing fine in 2004 before he injured his shoulder and his numbers dropped considerably. After the injury he only hit .218 and he’s used that as an excuse for his poor performance (ESPN News). If Nix has truly recovered from his shoulder injury, you can expect 14 hrs and 50 rbis.

DH:

David Dellucci

Most team s hope to get solid hitting from their DH, but all of Texas’s power hitters play the infield. This leaves the DH spot open for Dellucci who hit a paltry .242 and drove in only 61 runs. Don’t look for him to put up solid numbers, because he hasn’t ever in his career and 2005 won’t magically change things.

Starting Pitchers:

Kenny Rogers, Ryan Drese, Chan Ho Park, Chris Young, and Ricardo Rodriguez

Kenny Rogers went a surprising 18-9 last year, which is surprising considering whopping 4.76 ERA. The win-loss record can easily be explained by looking at the Rangers lineup that generate runs at will. Rogers is a mediocre pitcher at best, and at the age of 40, you can expect a drop in his production. I would expect 12-15 wins and an ERA above 4.00.

Ryan Drese went 14-10 with an ERA of 4.20 and if once again you consider Texas’s run support, not a surprising amount of wins. A glaring statistic last year was an abysmal 98 strikeouts in 34 games. Down the stretch in 2004 he finished with a 3-3 record with an ERA over 5.00. Texas better hope he can pitch better than last year, especially being the number 2 pitcher.

In just 16 starts last year Park posting an ERA of 5.46 and went 4-7. His ERA from 2003 and 2002 are also above 5.00 with a losing record. What have the Rangers seen to make him their third pitcher in their rotation? He has pitched well in his last couple of games in Spring Training, but it really shouldn’t be enough to warrant him being their third pitcher. I would expect more struggles for Park with another season with a big ERA.

In his rookie season Chris Young has seven starts and went 3-2 with an ERA of 4.71. He has pitched very well this Spring Training including his last start when he only needed 26 pitches to down 9 batters. Despite pitching well, we really don’t know how Young will fare when the season actually starts because of a blister.

In his last start (March 20), Rodriguez allowed 2 hits and struck out six in five scoreless innings. His ERA was under 3.00 in 26 innings last year and seems to be a lock for the starting rotation. In 2003 he struggled as a starter for Cleveland, but I expect good things from Rodriguez in the future, even if he doesn’t perform great this year.

Bullpen:

Francisco Cordero pitched great last year in relief saving 49 games, striking out more than a batter per inning, and had an ERA of 2.13. I would expect more of the same from Cordero who could hit 53 saves this year, if the Texas offense allows for this.

The AL West: Part II

2005-03-20T15:12:00.000-08:00

Oakland Athletics

Outfield:

Mark Kotsay, Charles Thomas, and Eric Byrnes.

Kotsay had an impressive year in 2004, batting .314, with 15 hrs, and 63 rbis for a lead off hitter. He set career highs in on base percentage and batting average. While he only stole 8 bases last year, he has great speed. I would expect a plus .300 batting average, and 18-25 hr’s.

In what may seem down the road another brilliant trade my genius GM Billy Bean, he acquired rookie sensation Charles Thomas from the Braves. In 83 games he hit .288 with 7hrs and 31 rbis. In 2004 he showed great fielding, speed on the base baths, and was competent with a bat. I would expect him to hit close to .300 with 20 hrs and 60 rbis.

In his second year as a starter, Byrnes did nothing but improve in every category across the board. I would expect his batting average to rise to .290, hit 22 hrs and drive in 80-85 runs. A threat also on the base baths, he could get 20-25 steals as well.

Infield:

Jason Kendall (C). Eric Chavez (3B), Scott Hatteberg (1B), Bobby Crosby (SS),

Kendall is great as long as he’s near the top of the order. Last year he hit .319 with 51 rbis. While Kotsay is expected to lead off, Kendall would fit in perfectly at the 2 spot. He averages .300 with 50 rbis for his career and this year in Oakland should be no different. With a speedy guy batting before him, you may see a lot of hit-and-run from Kendall.

2004 broke Eric Chavez streak of 100 rbi years at 3, mainly due to in injury. He should bat around .270, his career average, but expect his homeruns and rbis to go up. I would 35-40 hrs and once again reach over 100 rbis. He excels with men on base and batting behind Kotsay and Kendall will drive up his production.

Scott Hatteberg is unlikely to inspire any fear batting fifth in the Oakland lineup. Usually, batting fifth is reserved for a power hitter, and Hatteberg isn’t one. A career high 15 hrs and 80 rbis is not good enough production out of the middle of the lineup. Who would be afraid to walk Durazo to face Hatteberg? I would expect numbers similar to last years from Hatteberg with less rbis.

Bobby Crosby hit .239 with 22 hrs and 64 rbis in his first full season as a starter. I predict Crosby to put up better numbers than Hatteberg with 25hrs and 90rbis. The only worry about Crosby would be his batting average, but it should improve over time.

Second base it up for grabs this Spring training between Mark Ellis and Keith Ginter. I would only give the nod to Ellis because he played 2B all of last year while Ginter plays 3B.

DH:

Erubiel Durazo played 12 less games in 2004 than 2003 and still hit more homeruns and more rbis. Durazo has improved every year he’s played and 2005 should be no different. You can count on 25 hrs and 95 rbis.

Starting Pitchers:

Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, and Keiichi Yabu

In 2002 Barry Zito won the AL CY Young compiling a 23-5 record, a 2.72 ERA with 182 strike outs. In 2003-04, he’s compiled a record of 15-13, an ERA slightly over 4, and gave up 28 homeruns last year. For Oakland to be successful they really need Zito to pitch well. They would probably settle for his 2001 numbers when he went 17-8. I would expect Zito to win 15 games, strikeout 190, and have an ERA 4.00.

In his 2 year career, Harden had compiled a16-11 record with a 4.12 ERA. In his first full season last year he went 11-7 with an ERA of 3.99. I would expect Harden to win 16 games with an ERA of 4.00 with 190 strikeouts. If Zito pitches like he did last year, Harden could win the most games of any starting pitcher for Oakland.

Danny Haren is an unproven pitcher, coming into this season with only 19 career games as a starter. Despite starting only five games in 2004, he matched his 3 game win total from 2003. Considering his lack of experience, which is till more than Blanton and Yabu, I would guess 9 wins with a 4.25 ERA.

Young Joe Blanton is most likely the biggest question mark in the starting rotation. In 2004, he only pitched in 3 games for a total of 8 innings with an ERA over 5. At best he could possibly win 10 games but I wouldn’t count on it I would expect 8 wins with an ERA hovering around 5.

Back in April, the A’s signed Yabu fro Japan and despite being picked to be the fifth starting pitcher, no one really know what to expect. His main competition for the job is Dan Meyer who is also rather untested and has struggled at points this Spring Training.

Bullpen:

Octavio Dotel saved 36 games last year and is the leading candidate to close for the A’s. While his fastball is a dominant pitch, he has been a little inconsistent. If he retains the closing job for the entire season, I would expect 40 saves. He could losing the job to Huston Street and in my opinion, Dotel would be better used as a setup man.

The AL West: Part I

2005-03-19T21:22:00.000-08:00

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Outfield:

Steve Finley, Vlad Guerrero, and Garret Anderson

From these three you can expect 100 home runs and around 280 rbi’s. Need I say anything else?

Infield:

Orlando Cabrera (SS), Chone Figgins (2B), Darin Erstad (1B), Dallas McPherson (3B), Bengie Molina (C)

McPherson is entering his second year in the majors and will be given the starting job at third. In 16 games last year he hit .225 and drove in 6 runs. The Angles organization has highs hopes for McPherson, but only time will tell.

Cabrera is projected to bat 8^th behind whoever the DH is, probably Rob Quinian. Not being a power hitter and batting deep in the lineup, expect 10hr, and 50 rbi’s. If he gets on base, watch for the steal.

Figgins was solid all over the place last year playing 6 different positions and is expected to lead off the line up. Taking his base stealing into consideration and who bats behind him, he should put up similar numbers to last year: .296 average with 30sb’s.

Erstad, who is batting behind Figgins, should look for many fastballs because pitchers will be worried about Figgins speed when he’s on base. I would expect around .300 average, 80 rbi’s and 15-20 sb’s.

Monlian is not known for his batting skills and is in the lineup to call solid games. His 10hrs and 50 rbis is just icing on the cake.

Much like McPherson at 3B, the Angels will be using a tested player in Rob Quinian. He would be a big Question mark, but may start the season at third for an injured McPherson (Herniated Disk). Other options to start at DH are Juan Rivera and Casey Kotchman. Rivera never started until last year in Montreal and hit .307 12hr and 49 rbi’s. Kotchman may have the upper hand at starting despite playing Minor league ball last year. Everyone says it’s only a matter of time till he takes over at 1^st base when Erstand leaves after 2006 and has proven he can handle a bat in Spring Training by being among the team’s leaders in hits and rbi’s.

Starting Pitchers:

Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, Jarred Washburn, John Lackey, and Paul Byrd.

Last year Colon tied a career high with 18 wins, but had a monstrous 5.01 ERA. If this is the Angels ace, they’re in huge trouble. The only good news regarding Colon is he went 7-3 in his last 10 starts with an ERA under 4. The Angels must be hoping for the Colon of 2002 when he went 20-8 with a 2.93 ERA. I would expect 15-18 wins, an ERA around .450, and 150 K’s.

Don’t be fooled by Escobar’s poor 11-12 record, he had a solid ERA, and close to 200 K’s which was a career high. His problem last year was when he pitched, the Angels decided not to hit the ball. I would expect 12-16 wins and an ERA of 3.90.

Since becoming a starter, Washburn has only won more than 11 games once, back in 2002.In the last 2 years he has losing record and a high ERA. The only reason his record wasn’t worse was because he missed games due to injury. Even with the solid Angels lineup, I wouldn’t count on more than 12 wins from Washburn.

John Lackey should get is next in line for mediocre pitchers. In 3 years as a starter, his ERA has kept rising, but so has his wins. Lackey could very well be a starting pitcher just because he has experience and his game 7 World Series performance in 2002. I would expect more inconsistency from him this season, perhaps 16-16 as a starter.

Byrd is just another mediocre pitcher to grace the Angels pitching rotation. He went 8-7 last year on a solid Braves team. The bright side is that during Spring Training he has pitched well and his Sinker is looking great.

Bullpen:

Francisco Rodriguez has earned the job as the closer. In 69 appearances last year he posted an ERA of 1.82 and 123 K’s in 84 innings. If the Angels are up in the late innings, the other team may just want to throw in the towel.

Kevin Gregg is in the history books by throwing 4 wild pitches in one inning. His splitter is a bit uncontrollable and wore down as the season went on. I would expect his ERA to hang around 4.20 and gather in a couple of wins.

Scot Shields went 8-2 last year with a 3.33 ERA and averaged a little over a strike out per inning. His strong durability makes his a solid reliever and has improved every year. I would expect an ERA in the mid 3’s with 5-10 wins.

Brendan Donnely has hampered with injuries last year and only pitched 40 innings. I would expect him to be back to form and post an ERA around 2 and get 80 K’s.

Matt Hensley struggled in 2004 posting an ERA of 4.88 and giving up 5hr in just 27 inning s of work. I would expect better numbers in his second year in the majors, if nothing else, expect his ERA to drop. This may not happen however because of a shoulder injury which might require surgery.

Scott Dunn was rarely used in his rookie season, pitching 3 innings and posting a 9.00 ERA. What is can do this year is yet to be determined.

Esteben Yan went 3-6 last year with a 3.83 ERA and 7 saves. Yan was signed mainly to get out left handed Batters, who hit .255 against him last year. His 3.83 ERA was a career best and should pitch solidly in relief.

Taking into account all the above, I expect the Angels to win 100 games and their division.